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Stochastic representation of forecast uncertainties has been taken into account to improve dynamical seasonal prediction. In this study, perturbing the dynamic tendency by a random number is introduced to account for inherent uncertainties associated with computational representations of the underlying partial differential equations that govern the atmospheric motion. Compared to the traditional approach to perturb the physical tendency, the sensitivity of fluctuations in forecast variables to the magnitude of random forcing is found to be greater in the case of perturbing the dynamical tendency. Realizing that the major advantage of stochastic tendency in traditional approaches lies in the increase in ensemble spread, our approach manifests a greater potential in the field of dynamical ensemble prediction. An evaluation of a simulated climate for a boreal summer demonstrates a significant enhancement in forecast skill in terms of the large-scale features and precipitation, when both the dynamical and physical tendencies are simultaneously perturbed. This finding implies that model uncertainties could be addressed in terms of not only the physical parameterization but also the dynamical portion that used to be regarded as deterministically solved.  相似文献   
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Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.  相似文献   
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This study was performed to estimate the emission of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases(GHGs) from biomass burning at a large fire area.The extended methodology adopted the IPCC Guidelines(2003) equation for use on data from the Samcheok forest fire gathered using 30 m resolution Landsat TM satellite imagery,digital forest type maps,and growing stock information per hectare by forest type in 1999.Normalized burn ratio(NBR) technique was employed to analyze the area and severity of the Samcheok forest fire that occurred in 2000.The differences between NBR from pre-and post-fire datasets are examined to determine the extent and degree of change detected from burning.The results of burn severity analysis by dNBR of the Samcheok forest fire area revealed that a total of 16,200 ha of forest were burned.The proportion of the area characterized by a ’Low’ burn severity(dNBR below 152) was 35%,with ’Moderate’(dNBR 153-190) and ’High’(dNBR 191-255) areas were at 33% and 32%,respectively.The combustion efficiency for burn severity was calculated as 0.43 for crown fire where burn severity was ’High’,as 0.40 for ’Moderate’ severity,and 0.15 for ’Low’ severity surface fire.The emission factors for estimating non-CO 2 GHGs were separately applied to CO 130,CH 4 9,NO x 0.7 and N 2 O 0.11.Non-CO 2 GHGs emissions from biomass burning in the Samcheok forest fire area were estimated to be CO 44.100,CH 4 3.053,NO x 0.238 and N 2 O 0.038 Gg.  相似文献   
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To determine the appropriate allocation of resources for the future restoration of the abandoned mining district of Kangwon in Korea, identification of the main pollutants and the main sources discharging these pollutants is crucial. Therefore, a 2-year study was undertaken to quantify the amount of pollutants in the Uchen stream (a potential sink for contamination), which runs through the district, and to determine the potential sources of these pollutants, including mine drainage and soil. Arsenic (As) was the main pollutant in mine drainage and soils showing concentrations above the Korean regulated standard levels of 50 μg L−1 and 50 mg kg−1 for water and soil, respectively. In addition, the pollution index (PI) showed that mine drainages were polluted by As to a moderate (2 ≤ PI < 3) or strong (4 ≤ PI < 5) degree. Consequently, As load in mine drainage and soil contributed to increased amounts of As in the stream. The As loads in mine drainages (11 and 587 g month−1 for mine adit 1 and 2, respectively) accounted for only 9% of the total As load to the stream (6,378 g month−1); and the influence of mine drainages on As contents in the stream was more reliant on the total volume of mine drainage generated rather than the As concentration in the mine drainage. Approximately 91% of the As in the stream was derived from the soils within the study area.  相似文献   
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The paper investigates the roles and nature of postgraduate education on the professionalization of the shipping industry. The recent growth of postgraduate education is marked by the massive expansion of professional programmes on disciplines which traditionally emphasized non-academic, apprentice-style learning approach, including shipping business and management. The reasons behind such growth of demands, however, have remained scarce and empirically under-researched. Understanding this deficiency, in this study, we have undertaken a questionnaire survey completed by students/graduates who are pursuing/have recently pursued masters' programmes in shipping-related business and management offered by six Asian and European universities. Specifically, we analyze student motivations, considerations, and sources of information before enrolling such programmes, the extent that the shipping industry or other forces act as driving forces towards such enrollment, as well as students' evaluation of the postgraduate programmes that they are pursing/have pursued. Integrated in these discussions are comparative analyses of the data provided by different student groups based on their professional experiences and cultural backgrounds. We believe that this study has provided the lacking empirical inputs essential for achieving the sustainable development of postgraduate education in shipping business and management.  相似文献   
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The results are presented of an extensive programme of optical and infrared imaging of radio sources in a complete subsample of the Leiden–Berkeley Deep Survey. The LBDS Hercules sample consists of 72 sources observed at 1.4 GHz, with flux densities S 1.41.0 mJy, in a 1.2 deg2 region of Hercules. This sample is almost completely identified in the g , r , i and K bands, with some additional data available at J and H . The magnitude distributions peak at r ≃22 mag, K ≃16 mag and extend down to r ≃26 mag, K ≃21 mag. The K -band magnitude distributions for the radio galaxies and quasars are compared with those of other radio surveys. At S 1.4 GHz≲1 Jy, the K -band distribution does not change significantly with radio flux density. The sources span a broad range of colours, with several being extremely red ( r − K ≳6). Though small, this is the most optically complete sample of mJy radio sources available at 1.4 GHz, and is ideally suited for studying the evolution of the radio luminosity function out to high redshifts.  相似文献   
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Large agricultural fields in South Korea are located mostly on alluvial plains, where a significant amount of groundwater is used for heating of water‐curtain insulated greenhouses. Such greenhouses are commonly used for crop cultivation during the winter dry season from November to March. After use the groundwater is discharged directly into streams, causing groundwater depletion. A hydrogeological study was carried out in a typical agricultural area of this type, located on an alluvial aquifer near the Nakdong River. Groundwater levels, chemical characteristics, and temperatures from 68 observation wells were analyzed to determine the impacts of seasonal groundwater pumping on the groundwater system and stream‐aquifer interactions. Our results show that the groundwater system has not yet reached a state of dynamic equilibrium. Decades of excessive seasonal pumping have caused a gradual decline of groundwater levels, leading to groundwater depletion, especially in areas further from the river. Seasonal pumping has also significantly affected groundwater quality in the aquifer near the river. Groundwater temperature is decreasing (in this case a disadvantage), and saline groundwater is being diluted by induced recharge. The results of this study provide a basic outline for effective integrated water management that is widely applicable in South Korea.  相似文献   
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